As I am starting to write this blog post now, it is 6AM MST on November 10th. The last poll locations closed in Alaska 31 hours ago.
Thankfully, we are not facing a crisis like we did in 2000 where we didn't get a president-elect for over a month after the election because Florida couldn't get their act together.
Hate it, disagree with it, like it, or love it, it doesn't matter. Donald Trump will be our next president. All of the major networks have Trump sitting at 279 electoral votes or higher. Each network has 3 or less states left to be called. These are Arizona, New Hampshire, or Michigan.
The three states don't matter from a who wins perspective because of the other 279 Trump electoral votes, but they could have.
Playing the what if game – if Clinton had won Pennsylvania, then Trump would only be at 259 and we still wouldn't know who the next president would be, until these three states get resolved.
Further playing the what if game – if we give Trump Pennsylvania again, but take away Wisconsin, Trump would be at 269. Then supposing AZ, MI, and NH all go to Clinton, it would be 269-269. The tie-breaker would be the House of Representatives – with a vote by states (each state gets one vote, so all representatives from each state have to combine together, meaning a Republican victory in modern times since Democratic Reps are concentrated in CA, NY, etc.)
Back to reality now.
Quite a few interesting stats are occurring. Piecing these together requires going to all of the major news networks' websites since none are ideal. ABC News and Fox News get high marks for coming close though.
1) According to ABC News' analysis, only 92% of the ballots across the country have been counted. There is no reason why this should be so low.
2) Arizona – consensus is that only 75% of the ballots are in! Did the election workers go on strike or what?! This percentage has not budged since Clinton gave her concession speech yesterday around 10AM. What are they waiting for?
3) New Hampshire – consensus is that 98% of the ballots are in. Clinton has a small 1,437 lead out of 692,000+ votes cast. I understand why most networks have not called this one. I don't understand how the AP and CNN have called this one, when the two networks I trust far more than them, ABC News and Fox News, have not called that state for anyone.
4) Michigan – consensus is that 96% of the ballots are in. Quite a few other states have a lower percentage counted, but the presidential winners have been able to be called. Michigan currently has about a 12,000 vote lead for Trump, but still has a possibility of flipping to Clinton. Also understandable why none of the networks have called this one.
5) California – the most populous state in the union has only bothered to count 68% of their ballots so far. Pathetic! It's a good thing that they never play a major role in presidential elections. Yes, they have 55 electoral votes, but everybody just assumes it goes to the democratic candidate each time. It could have an effect on House races though.
6) Oregon – this state is unique in that they do all (almost all??) of their voting by mail. There are no voting locations. They are currently sitting at 86% counted. There is no reason why they shouldn't pop up immediately at 100% as soon as the West Coast closes. Just make the deadline to have stuff received at the proper post office be Saturday before the election. Then, swear the vote counters to secrecy, under penalty of jail time, and they can have things perfectly counted by the end of the day on election Tuesday. There, problem solved.
I would like to get it to a point where the states can get the ballot counts out quickly after the polls close in each state. This would require early counting of absentee ballots, quick resolution of challenged ballots, earlier deadlines for mail in votes, etc. I only have one voice though, and most of the rest of the country doesn't care any more once they saw that Trump won.
